It depends entirely on the ambient electromagnetic noise, the density of the media, and the quality of the read/write head. More noise, more dense data, and lower quality read/write mechanisms will result in so-called "bit rot" setting in faster. It's also going to vary depending on the quality of the internal motor and bearings. Part of the problem of spinning up an old disk is the fact that they're mechanical, and mechanical things don't age well without maintenance.
On mag tape, I've always heard the limiting factor is the method they use to bind the magnetic particles to the tape backing. The shelf life in perfect conditions (no light, nitrogen environment, temperature controlled) for that is supposed to be about 25 years (which is a problem for hospitals, who are supposed to maintain data backups for the life of the patient). Tape continues to be used because it is cheap and very high density, not because it has a superior shelf life.
Recordable optical media lifetime is about 100 years in theory (note that the discs haven't been around that long to actually test!) assuming absolutely no light after burning. Once you introduce an environment with light to recordable media, however, the lifespan drops drastically. 10 years at the most is what I've been told. True pressed discs last indefinitely as long as the media is internal to the disc medium, but those are extremely difficult to produce and are not economical for one-off disc production.
This is what I remember from talking with a salesperson from Iron Mountain several years ago. We did not talk about magnetic disks, but I know they are not more reliable. Hard drives combine three elements: one magnetic, one mechanical, and one electrical. Any and all of these are prone to failure, and this is why hard drives are one of the most common devices to fail in an operational system. You'll also note that the most modern filesystems such as btrfs and ZFS do online "disk scrubbing" where the system will actively read and rewrite disk sectors to maintain the magnetic integrity of the disk.
I would say 10-15 years of life if the density is not ludicrously high and you sit the disk on a shelf and don't touch it.